题  目：PrEP Intervention in the Mitigation of HIV/AIDS Epidemicsin China via a Data-Validated Age-Structured Model

主讲人：吴鹏博士

时  间：2023年12月19日（周二）14：30-15：30

地  点：6号学院楼402会议室

主办单位：数据科学学院、浙江省2011“数据科学与大数据分析协同创新中心”

摘  要：

Antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment offers a new opportunity for protecting humans against HIV and disrupting current HIV prevention systems. However, implementing this preventive measure has been diffificult due to its high cost. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model that incorporates infection ages, HAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy), and PrEP intervention. We investigate the qualitative behavior of the model and fifind a threshold parameter (the basic reproduction number) that determines the asymptotic stability of equilibria. We validate the model and estimate theparameters by confronting the actual HIV/AIDS data from 2004 to 2018 in China using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method. Furthermore, we investigate the PrEP intervention strategy by usingincremental cost-effectiveness and average cost-effectiveness. Our work suggests that PrEP intervention based on the infection characteristics of different age groups can be an effective strategy to eradicate HIV/AIDS epidemics in China.

主讲人简介：

吴鹏，应用数学博士，研究方向是动力系统理论研究及其应用，主要研究内容是HIV/AIDS传染病动力学建模与研究（ODE,PDE建模、数值分析、最优控制问题）。以第一作者在Journal of FranklinInstitute、Applied Mathematical Modelling、Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications、Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems Series B、高校应用数学学报、系统科学与数学等应用数学和生物数学方面知名SCI及国内权威学术期刊发表论文20余篇。

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